Trump-Aligned Former NFL Reporter Tafoya Opens Up Big Lead in Minn. Primary
Despite Tafoya’s sizable primary lead, Republicans still face a difficult general election environment in Minnesota, a state Democrats have consistently carried in recent federal elections.
Democrats are also preparing for a closely watched primary battle.
The leading Democratic contenders are U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 6–8, 2026
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Minnesota’s Republican U.S. Senate primary begins with Michele Tafoya holding a commanding early lead, while more than one-quarter of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.
📊 Minnesota GOP Senate Primary
🔴 Michele Tafoya:… pic.twitter.com/o07jKIYp4y
Major election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, currently rate the seat as leaning Democratic due to Minnesota’s recent voting history and partisan makeup
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in late April showed Flanagan leading Craig 44 percent to 33 percent, continuing a trend seen in earlier polling throughout the year.
Previous January surveys similarly showed Flanagan maintaining an advantage ranging from 8 to 13 points.
Tafoya’s supporters argue her outsider profile, communication skills, and established public presence could help Republicans appeal to suburban and independent voters who have drifted away from the GOP in recent statewide elections.
The emerging matchup could create one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 cycle, especially if Republicans continue to see favorable national momentum heading into the midterms
Critics, meanwhile, question whether celebrity status and media experience will translate into electoral success in a state where Democrats still maintain structural advantages in federal races.
