LA Mayor’s Race Tightens As Socialist Raman Advancing
Those results represent a notable overperformance for Raman compared to the pace
she needs to catch Pratt in the overall count.
While Pratt remains ahead in the overall tally, the margin has steadily narrowed as additional mail ballots have been processed.
Advertisement The shifting dynamics have also prompted updates from election forecasting groups.
Election analysts tracking the race noted that Raman’s benchmark against Pratt in late ballots was roughly 11. 2%
The Public Sentiment Institute announced Friday that its latest modeling now gives Raman a slight advantage in
the race for second place. Advertisement “Our website has been updated.
Nithya Raman has a 51. 3% chance to move on to the runoff vs. Bass, who our modeling has already confirmed,” the organization posted on social media.
Our website has been updated
Nithya Raman has a 51. 3% chance to move on to the Runoff vs Bass, who our modeling has already confirmed. #LAmayor pic.
twitter. com/mYqgU7ndQT
— The Public Sentiment Institute (@TPSIOfficial) June 5, 2026 Bass has effectively secured her place in the November general election,
leading the field with 35. 1% of the vote according to the latest official returns.
The central question now is whether Pratt can hold onto second place or whether Raman’s
continued strength among late-arriving ballots will allow her to leapfrog him before the final count is completed.
California’s notoriously slow vote counting process has kept the outcome uncertain Unlike many states that report nearly complete results on election night, California allows vote by mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive for up to seven days afterward
Unlike many states that report nearly complete results on election night, California allows vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive
for up to seven days afterward. Counties then have weeks to verify signatures, process provisional ballots, and complete their official canvass.
Los Angeles County election officials estimate that hundreds of thousands of ballots remain to be processed,
though it remains unclear how many of those ballots come from Los Angeles city voters eligible to participate in the mayoral contest.
Political observers note that California’s late ballots have historically favored Democratic and progressive candidates.
Only about 62% of ballots cast within the city had been counted as of Thursday, leaving a substantial number of votes still outstanding Several recent California races have followed a similar pattern
Several recent California races have followed a similar pattern.
Los Angeles City Late Mail
🔵 Karen Bass – 11,748 (36. 9%) 🔵 Nithya Raman – 10,664 (33. 5%) 🔴 Spencer Pratt – 6,433 (20.\2%)
Raman’s rough benchmark against Pratt is 11.2%, so this is an 2 point overperformance, though turnout could change that
— VoteHub (@VoteHub) June 4, 2026 Political analysts note that voters who submit ballots later in the process
often skew younger, more urban, and more progressive than those whose ballots are counted first.
Those demographic groups generally align more closely with Raman’s political base.
At the same time, analysts caution that overcoming Pratt’s statewide lead remains a difficult challenge.
Because remaining Democratic ballots are likely to be split between both Bass and Raman, Raman must not only outperform Pratt among outstanding ballots but also significantly outperform Bass to erase the deficit entirely Some election experts continue to view Pratt as the favorite to secure the second runoff spot, though confidence in that prediction has weakened as additional results have been released
Some election experts continue to view Pratt as the favorite to secure the second runoff spot,
though confidence in that prediction has weakened as additional results have been released.
The latest late-ballot totals are likely to intensify scrutiny on every new update from county election officials over the coming days.
For Raman, the path remains narrow but increasingly plausible, election watchers have noted.
